Although this image is what every Knick fan would love to see in 2010, it's just not going to happen. Despite having a girth of contracts coming off the rolls after the 2009-10 season for the Knicks, the spectre of Isiah Thomas still remains. The Knicks DO NOT have a first round draft pick in 2010. Yeah, Utah has it. Eddy Curry, a chubby undersized center, and Jared Jeffries - who? exactly. - are both sitting on the chest of the Knicks' salary cap. Should Donnie Walsh hoodwink LeBron into coming to New York, the Knicks would have a tough time assembling anything resembling a playoff team. When you look at the contract situation for the Knicks, your hopes diminish quickly for a LeBorgasm of NBA championships happening at MSG.
A little math and reasoning will help explain my point. LeBron is going to sign for the max obviously. Under the current CBA, NBA players can earn no less than 105% of their current salary. That puts LeBron at $16,568,908 for 2009-2010, slightly higher than the max salary. This actually would be a pay cut for LeBron because he has a player option for next year that would pay him over seventeen million. But, considering the CBA is up for renegotiation in two years and his desire to play for a contender, he is likely to opt out and lock up a max deal.
The Knicks are not likely to resign any of their expiring contracts. 1) Because most of them are grossly overpaid and/or suck and 2) why would you align them to expire for 2010 if you were going to resign them. The Knicks have four players still on the rookie scale and both Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries have player options they would be stupid not to exercise. Assuming they keep the Rooks, the roster starts off this way in 2010:
Eddy Curry $ 11,276,863
Jared Jeffries $ 6,883,800
Danilo Gallinari $ 3,304,560
Jordan Hill $ 2,669,520
Wilson Chandler $ 2,130,481
Toney Douglas $ 1,071,000
Lebron James $16,568,908
That's $43,905,132 of a $57,700,000 cap before you build out your team.
Because the Knicks will be under the cap for the first time since the Iron age, salary cap exceptions won't come into play next year. A NBA team can either have cap room or exceptions, but it can't have both. Still, $13,794,868 is a decent amount of cash to sign players.
The Knicks would need a point guard to start off with. Since reactions to Chris Duhon have been tepid at best and suicidal at worst, I think the organization might go in a different direction. The hardcore Knicks fans at the UltimateKnicks forum came up with some reasonable suggestions, mainly Ray Felton or Randy Foye. I'll use the mid-level exception as a proxy for either of those two's salary. The Knicks would need to fill out the frontcourt next. My guess it that they could convince David Lee to resign for $6.5 mil if they gave him a five year deal. That would make the Knicks undersized, but a slow plodding center doesn't really fit in the 7 seconds or less run and gun style of Mike D'Antoni. Sounds like a decent team until you realize you now only have $1,440,868 to fill 5 roster spots including a starting shooting guard. That's not even enough to pay Nate to keep racking up DNPs. If you went with this plan, the resulting roster would be:
PG Ray Felton or Randy Foye
SG 4th best SG from the D league
SF LeBron James
PF Danilo Galinari/Wilson Chandler
C David Lee
That doesn't look like a LeBorgasm, it looks like a LeBortion.
See, this is where having a top 5 pick in the draft would have helped. You could draft a SG or a C and be able to sign him, even if you were over the cap. But no, Isiah had to trade the unprotected 2010 1st round pick to the Suns for Stephon Marbury in 2003. His thinking was probably, "I won't be here when that happens." Maybe he was shrewder than we think...naaaahhh. Just to reiterate: THE NEW YORK KNICKS DO NOT HAVE A FIRST ROUND PICK IN 2010.
So what's the solution? Move Curry or Jeffries? That would be nice, but NO ONE is taking on Curry's contract unless the Clippers stupidly trade Kaman to save a year on his contract and set themselves up for a run at Kobe in 2011-12. Curry is dead weight. No team would take him especially when a lot of other teams are trying to align themselves the same way the Knicks are for the coming free agent class. As for Jeffries, the Knicks have been supposedly been "showcasing" him lately. He has showcased himself to the tune of 4 points and 3 rebounds per game. Again, I don't think anyone is biting.
I hate to say it, but the Knicks just don't have the pieces to lure LeBron to NYC. Even if he was dead set on coming to New York, they would still be a few years away from a championship. The Knicks are in a tough spot especially with expectations mounting. But, the pickings are slim after the top 3 free agents. The Knicks should probably wait this thing out another year. Curry and Jefferies will be gone and they will have a draft pick. I'm hoping one of basketball's cornerstone franchises returns to greatness or even 3-seed Eastern Conference Finals semi-greatness, but it is not going to happen with LeBron in blue and orange. Sorry.
Sources: Larry Coon's Salary Cap Info, Sham Sports' great player salary page
-K
P.S. I would love to see LeBron in NYC, so feel free to shred my assumptions, mock my theory and figure out a better way to get him here.
